Paris FC 3–3 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Paris FC

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Niort

A. Abdi 33', 1'

F. Martin 9'

P. Bâ 55'

B. Boutobba 38'

V. Jacob 20'

2/2/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 23Stade Sébastien-Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Paris FC51%

×Draw26%

Niort23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris FCExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.89

Paris FC

1.48

Niort

0.89

Paris FC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 94 away

1.42

creates per match

0.83

0.94

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Paris FC

1.42

Niort

0.83

allows per match

Paris FC

0.94

Niort

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw

77%

Paris FC or Niort

74%

Draw or Niort

49%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+

26%

Niort wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals

77%

Paris FC 2+ goals

43%

Paris FC 3+ goals

19%

Niort 1+ goals

59%

Niort 2+ goals

22%

Niort 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)

69%

Niort (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 127 matches

Niort away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.55 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 1.42 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Niort attack 0.83 + Paris FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Paris FC scores more

51%

level

26%

Niort scores more

23%

Paris FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. López

Paris FC · M

8.7

Match Events

1'

A. Abdi↳ J. López

9'

F. Martin↳ J. López

20'

V. Jacob

32'

B. Boutobba← B. Konaté

33'

34'

38'

42'

46'

D. Yongwa Ngameni← L. Vallier

50'

53'

53'

54'

55'

P. Bâ↳ V. Jacob

67'

71'

80'

80'

85'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParisNiort

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots7

5Corners3

19Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots7

9On Target3

8Off Target2

1Blocked2

16Inside Box6

2Outside Box1

Passing

59%Possession41%

425Total Passes291

319Accurate Passes181

75%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2

Ligue 2: Paris FC 3–3 Niort

Paris FC and Niort drew 3-3 in Ligue 2 on February 2, 2021.

Goals: A. Abdi (1', 33'), F. Martin (9'), V. Jacob (20'), B. Boutobba (38'), P. Bâ (55').

Paris FC controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Sébastien-Charléty in Paris.

Paris FC vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Paris FC 3–3 Niort