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Paris FC vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Paris FC
Paris FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
M. Mbow 51'
M. Cafaro 8'
4/4/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 29Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Paris FC44%
×Draw28%
Clermont Foot28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC
1.29
Clermont Foot
0.97

Paris FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 98 away

creates per match

Paris FC
1.43
Clermont Foot
0.99

allows per match

Paris FC
0.96
Clermont Foot
1.16

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw
72%
Paris FC or Clermont Foot
72%
Draw or Clermont Foot
56%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+
20%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals
72%
Paris FC 2+ goals
37%
Paris FC 3+ goals
14%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
62%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
25%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)
61%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.96 · 118 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 1.43 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Paris FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Paris FC scores more
44%
level
28%
Clermont Foot scores more
28%

Paris FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
M. LopezParis FCParis FC · M
8.3

Match Events

8'
M. Cafaro↳ I. Kebbal
46'
N. Dicko← I. Kebbal
50'
Damien Da Silva
51'
M. Mbow↳ M. Lopez
57'
J. López← J. Krasso
64'
F. Diédhiou← O. Diop
65'
K. Bamba← H. Keïta
66'
Damien Da Silva
66'
Damien Da Silva
73'
T. Ollila← A. Gory
77'
T. Diagouraga← H. Saivet
77'
A. Ackra← M. Bassouamina
77'
Y. Armougom← M. Douane
81'
Moustapha Mbow
83'
M. Kanté← M. Mbow
83'
L. Doucet← M. Cafaro

Possession

67%Paris

Shots

13Paris

Pass accuracy

51%Paris

Statistics

ParisClermont
Overview
67%Possession33%
13Total Shots4
8Corners4
12Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots4
5On Target0
3Off Target2
5Blocked2
10Inside Box1
3Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
671Total Passes317
617Accurate Passes277
92%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Paris FC vs Clermont Foot

Paris FC beat Clermont Foot 2-0 in Ligue 2 on April 4, 2025.

Goals: M. Cafaro (8'), M. Mbow (51').

Paris FC controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.