Clermont Foot 3–2 Paris FC: Result & Stats

Clermont Foot

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Paris FC

J. Berthomier 52'

J. Dossou 22', 7'

J. López 77'

F. Ogier 42' (OG)

12/19/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Clermont Foot39%

×Draw29%

Paris FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchParis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.06

Clermont Foot

1.20

Paris FC

1.06

Clermont Foot creates 13% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 118 away

1.31

creates per match

1.08

1.03

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.31

Paris FC

1.08

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.03

Paris FC

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Paris FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

68%

Clermont Foot or Paris FC

71%

Draw or Paris FC

61%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

17%

Paris FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

70%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

34%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

12%

Paris FC 1+ goals

65%

Paris FC 2+ goals

29%

Paris FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

55%

Paris FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Paris FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Paris FC attack 1.08 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

39%

level

29%

Paris FC scores more

32%

Clermont Foot at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Dossou

Clermont Foot · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

J. Dossou↳ M. Bayo

22'

J. Dossou

42'

F. OgierOwn goal

52'

J. Berthomier↳ M. Bayo

59'

M. Guilavogui← M. Name

59'

M. Kikonda← C. Mandouki

69'

S. Chader← J. Dossou

69'

J. Allevinah← C. Gomis

74'

J. Iglesias← J. Berthomier

77'

80'

83'

85'

87'

90+3'

J. Tell← M. Bayo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontParis

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots14

4Corners9

10Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots14

5On Target3

3Off Target7

3Blocked4

8Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

378Total Passes468

302Accurate Passes391

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides3