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Clermont Foot vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paris FC
Paris FC
C. Timite 77'
2/21/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade Gabriel Montpied (Clermont-Ferrand)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Clermont Foot39%
×Draw29%
Paris FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.20
Paris FC
1.06

Clermont Foot creates 13% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 118 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.31
Paris FC
1.08

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.03
Paris FC
1.09

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
68%
Clermont Foot or Paris FC
71%
Draw or Paris FC
61%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
17%
Paris FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
70%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
34%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
12%
Paris FC 1+ goals
65%
Paris FC 2+ goals
29%
Paris FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
55%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Paris FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Paris FC attack 1.08 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
39%
level
29%
Paris FC scores more
32%

Clermont Foot at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
O. KantéParis FCParis FC · D
7.7

Match Events

8'
Julio Donisa
18'
Jonathan Iglesias
28'
C. Timite← J. Pitroipa
43'
Ali Abdi
46'
M. Kikonda← Y. Coulibaly
66'
Mario González← J. Donisa
73'
Y. Magnin← J. Berthomier
77'
C. Timite↳ M. Kikonda
79'
S. Chader← J. Iglesias
87'
M. Rabiu← C. Timite

Possession

64%Clermont

Shots

14Clermont

Pass accuracy

52%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontParis
Overview
64%Possession36%
14Total Shots12
5Corners3
9Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots12
4On Target2
4Off Target5
6Blocked5
5Inside Box5
9Outside Box7
Passing
64%Possession36%
597Total Passes342
504Accurate Passes263
84%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Clermont Foot vs Paris FC

Paris FC beat Clermont Foot 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 21, 2020.

Goals: C. Timite (77').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied (Clermont-Ferrand) in Clermont-Ferrand.