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Paraguay vs Venezuela — Friendlies 2026

Paraguay
Paraguay
PST
00:00
Venezuela
Venezuela
11/15/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Paraguay48%
×Draw29%
Venezuela23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paraguay
1.27
Venezuela
0.79

Paraguay creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

creates per match

Paraguay
1.67
Venezuela
1.42

allows per match

Paraguay
0.17
Venezuela
0.88

finishing

Paraguay+0.00on par
Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paraguay ↓

Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Paraguay or draw
77%
Paraguay or Venezuela
71%
Draw or Venezuela
52%

Winning margin

Paraguay wins by 2+
22%
Venezuela wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Paraguay 1+ goals
72%
Paraguay 2+ goals
36%
Paraguay 3+ goals
14%
Venezuela 1+ goals
55%
Venezuela 2+ goals
19%
Venezuela 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Paraguay (draw refunded)
67%
Venezuela (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paraguay at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

Venezuela away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paraguay attack 1.67 + Venezuela defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.27

Venezuela attack 1.42 + Paraguay defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Paraguay scores more
48%
level
29%
Venezuela scores more
23%

Paraguay at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Paraguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paraguay face Venezuela (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Paraguay hosting Venezuela. Match starts November 15, 2019. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Paraguay host Venezuela at Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.