Panevėžys 2–1 Jonava: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Panevėžys

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Jonava

E. Kaçe 29'

Elivelto 18'

J. Lubas 11'

11/23/2022

A Lyga · Round 36Aukštaitija stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Panevėžys67%

×Draw20%

Jonava14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanevėžysExpected goals in this matchJonava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.83

Panevėžys

2.12

Jonava

0.83

Panevėžys creates 155% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 24 away

1.44

creates per match

0.71

0.96

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Panevėžys

1.44

Jonava

0.71

allows per match

Panevėžys

0.96

Jonava

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys ↓

Jonava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Panevėžys or draw

86%

Panevėžys or Jonava

80%

Draw or Jonava

33%

Winning margin

Panevėžys wins by 2+

43%

Jonava wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Panevėžys 1+ goals

88%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

62%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

35%

Jonava 1+ goals

56%

Jonava 2+ goals

20%

Jonava 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

83%

Jonava (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.96 · 121 matches

Jonava away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys attack 1.44 + Jonava defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.12

Jonava attack 0.71 + Panevėžys defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Panevėžys scores more

67%

level

20%

Jonava scores more

14%

Panevėžys at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

13'

18'

27'

29'

31'

31'

31'

46'

I. Driomovas← Rafael Broetto

71'

Wanderson← A. Smith

79'

A. Radchenko

80'

M. Ćuković← Elivelto

84'

D. Stankevičius← Y. Fawzi

89'

E. Veliulis← J. Sarpong

89'

A. Kabošius← V. Mashchenko

Panevėžys

Jonava

35

20

77

14

18

▼

Fawzi

23

Rocys

69

▼

Mashchenk

28

Glushach

10

⚽

Lubas

7

Radchenko

99

Ganusausk

27

▼

2

33

31

17

23

▼

Sarpong

18

Eliošius

6

⚽

Kaçe

20

Čađenović

80

⚽

▼

Elivelto

11

▼

Smith

Manager: G. Lettieri

46'▲I. Driomovas←▼Rafael Broetto

71'▲Wanderson←▼A. Smith

80'▲M. Ćuković←▼Elivelto

89'▲E. Veliulis←▼J. Sarpong

Panevėžys substitutes

97Driomovas29Wanderson21Ćuković7Veliulis9Bašić13Žederštreimas15Vásquez16Remeikis26Diallo

Manager: P. Kushlyk

84'▲D. Stankevičius←▼Y. Fawzi

89'▲A. Kabošius←▼V. Mashchenko

Jonava substitutes

55Stankevičius4Kabošius8Klapatauskas16Matuzas5Macijauskas

A Lyga: Panevėžys 2–1 Jonava

Panevėžys beat Jonava 2-1 in A Lyga on November 23, 2022.

Goals: J. Lubas (11'), Elivelto (18'), E. Kaçe (29').

The match was played at Aukštaitija stadionas in Panevėžys.

Panevėžys vs Jonava — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: Panevėžys 2–1 Jonava