Jonava 1–4 Panevėžys: Result & Stats | Cup

Jonava

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Panevėžys

N. Benevicius 64'

L. Klimavicius 90+3'

A. Smith 37', 28', 23'

8/13/2025

Cup · Quarter-finalsJonavos centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jonava4%

×Draw10%

Panevėžys85%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JonavaExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.55

2.98

Jonava

0.55

Panevėžys

2.98

Panevėžys creates 442% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

0.33

creates per match

3.12

2.83

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Jonava

0.33

Panevėžys

3.12

allows per match

Jonava

2.83

Panevėžys

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Panevėžys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–19%

0–213%

0–313%

0–410%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Jonava or draw

15%

Jonava or Panevėžys

90%

Draw or Panevėžys

96%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+

1%

Panevėžys wins by 2+

66%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals

42%

Jonava 2+ goals

11%

Jonava 3+ goals

2%

Panevėžys 1+ goals

95%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

79%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)

5%

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 3.12, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 0.33 + Panevėžys defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.55

Panevėžys attack 3.12 + Jonava defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Jonava scores more

4%

level

10%

Panevėžys scores more

85%

Panevėžys at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

G. Nikonovas

21'

T. Dombrauskis

23'

A. Smith

24'

S. Kouadio

28'

A. Smith

37'

A. Smith

46'

M. Ganusauskas← E. Mickevicius

46'

A. Dubickas← A. Stulga

46'

K. Olsauskas← K. Olsauskas

46'

F. Steponavicius← S. Kouadio

55'

A. Dante

64'

N. Benevicius

71'

Elivelton← Elivelton

75'

A. Dubickas← A. Dubickas

81'

E. Veliulis← E. Veliulis

88'

N. Benevicius← N. Benevicius

90'

A. Smith← A. Smith

90'

L. Klimavicius← D. Vaicekauskas

90+3'

L. Klimavicius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff