Panevėžys 4–0 Jonava: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Panevėžys

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jonava

D. Vaičekauskas 89'

Elivelto 82' (pen)

M. Ćuković 62'

Wanderson 40'

4/9/2022

A Lyga · Round 7Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Panevėžys67%

×Draw20%

Jonava14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanevėžysExpected goals in this matchJonava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.83

Panevėžys

2.12

Jonava

0.83

Panevėžys creates 155% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 24 away

1.44

creates per match

0.71

0.96

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Panevėžys

1.44

Jonava

0.71

allows per match

Panevėžys

0.96

Jonava

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys ↓

Jonava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Panevėžys or draw

86%

Panevėžys or Jonava

80%

Draw or Jonava

33%

Winning margin

Panevėžys wins by 2+

43%

Jonava wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Panevėžys 1+ goals

88%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

62%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

35%

Jonava 1+ goals

56%

Jonava 2+ goals

20%

Jonava 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

83%

Jonava (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.96 · 121 matches

Jonava away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys attack 1.44 + Jonava defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.12

Jonava attack 0.71 + Panevėžys defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Panevėžys scores more

67%

level

20%

Jonava scores more

14%

Panevėžys at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

26'

40'

46'

56'

T. Eliošius← R. Stanulevičius

57'

N. Machado

62'

M. Ćuković

65'

N. Milev← E. Veliulis

65'

L. Čepkauskas← A. Rocys

75'

J. Jorrín← M. Ganusauskas

82'

EliveltoPenalty

86'

M. Remeikis← Elivelto

86'

D. Vaičekauskas← J. Sarpong

89'

D. Vaičekauskas

Panevėžys

Jonava

16

40

22

3

19

47

23

▼

Rocys

8

Khamelyuk

14

Kawachi

99

▼

7

27

2

21

⚽

Ćuković

17

Širvys

44

Akpudje

23

▼

Sarpong

7

▼

Veliulis

14

▼

Stanulevi

80

⚽

▼

Elivelto

29

⚽

Wanderson

26

▼

Diallo

Manager: V. Urbonas

46'▲A. Smith←▼U. Diallo

56'▲T. Eliošius←▼R. Stanulevičius

65'▲N. Milev←▼E. Veliulis

86'▲M. Remeikis←▼Elivelto

86'▲D. Vaičekauskas←▼J. Sarpong

Panevėžys substitutes

11Smith18Eliošius10Milev16Remeikis25Vaičekauskas12Šimkevičius13Žederštreimas66Dzinga97Driomovas99Lukšys88Baguška

Manager: E. Utyra

65'▲L. Čepkauskas←▼A. Rocys

75'▲J. Jorrín←▼M. Ganusauskas

Jonava substitutes

11Čepkauskas17Jorrín9Osauskas12Kostik90Eliošius97Silva

A Lyga: Panevėžys 4–0 Jonava

Panevėžys beat Jonava 4-0 in A Lyga on April 9, 2022.

Goals: Wanderson (40'), M. Ćuković (62'), Elivelto (82' pen), D. Vaičekauskas (89').

The match was played at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas in Panevėžys.

Panevėžys vs Jonava — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: Panevėžys 4–0 Jonava