Panevėžys II vs Hegelmann II — 1 Lyga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 38+ matches
Panevėžys II44%
Hegelmann II34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Panevėžys II creates 15% more chances
Season form · 85 home / 38 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Panevėžys II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches
Hegelmann II away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.13 · 38 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Hegelmann II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.80
Hegelmann II attack 1.11 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.56
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Panevėžys II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Panevėžys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Hegelmann II substitutes
Head to Head
Džiugas Telšiai
Banga
Vilniaus Vytis
Dainava
Nevėžis
Šiauliai
Hegelmann Litauen
Minija
Jonava
Kupiškis
BFA
Trakai II
Žalgiris II
Atmosfera
Pakruojis
Stumbras IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Panevėžys II host Hegelmann II on Friday, 29 August 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the 1 Lyga 2026/2027 season.
Panevėžys II 0 – 3 Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II beat Panevėžys II 3-0 in 1 Lyga on August 29, 2025.
Goals: K. Janusa (22'), A. Armalas (84'), A. Spycius (90').
The match was played at Panevėžio futbolo akademijos stadionas in Panevėžys.