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Hegelmann II vs Panevėžys II — 1 Lyga 2026

Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
L. Jonaitis 24'
7/28/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 16LFF Kauno treniruočių centras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hegelmann II42%
×Draw23%
Panevėžys II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hegelmann II
1.71
Panevėžys II
1.56

Hegelmann II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 81 away

creates per match

Hegelmann II
1.24
Panevėžys II
1.47

allows per match

Hegelmann II
1.65
Panevėžys II
2.19

finishing

Hegelmann II+0.00on par
Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann II ↓

Panevėžys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hegelmann II or draw
65%
Hegelmann II or Panevėžys II
77%
Draw or Panevėžys II
58%

Winning margin

Hegelmann II wins by 2+
22%
Panevėžys II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hegelmann II 1+ goals
82%
Hegelmann II 2+ goals
51%
Hegelmann II 3+ goals
24%
Panevėžys II 1+ goals
79%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
46%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann II (draw refunded)
54%
Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann II at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann II attack 1.24 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.71

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Hegelmann II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hegelmann II scores more
42%
level
23%
Panevėžys II scores more
35%

Hegelmann II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hegelmann II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
P. Kukta← P. Kukta
24'
L. Jonaitis
29'
A. Trakselis
43'
T. Buzas
46'
E. Dzinga← M. Malatokas
46'
E. Puikis← E. Puikis
53'
M. Malatokas
58'
D. Gleveckas← D. Gleveckas
66'
A. Armalas← A. Armalas
73'
R. Kulbis← R. Kulbis
76'
N. Grudis← N. Grudis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hegelmann II vs Panevėžys II

Hegelmann II beat Panevėžys II 1-0 in 1 Lyga on July 28, 2024.

Goals: L. Jonaitis (24').

The match was played at LFF Kauno treniruočių centras in Kaunas.