Panevėžys II 2–2 Hegelmann II: Result & Stats

Panevėžys II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hegelmann II

N. Luksys 55' (pen)

L. Pangonis 11' (OG)

E. Kausinis 75' (pen)

D. Pasilys 21'

4/15/2024

1 Lyga · Round 6Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Panevėžys II44%

×Draw23%

Hegelmann II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panevėžys IIExpected goals in this matchHegelmann II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.56

Panevėžys II

1.80

Hegelmann II

1.56

Panevėžys II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 38 away

1.47

creates per match

1.11

2.01

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Panevėžys II

1.47

Hegelmann II

1.11

allows per match

Panevėžys II

2.01

Hegelmann II

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Hegelmann II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Hegelmann II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw

66%

Panevėžys II or Hegelmann II

77%

Draw or Hegelmann II

56%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

23%

Hegelmann II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

83%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

54%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

27%

Hegelmann II 1+ goals

79%

Hegelmann II 2+ goals

46%

Hegelmann II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

56%

Hegelmann II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Hegelmann II away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Hegelmann II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.80

Hegelmann II attack 1.11 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Panevėžys II scores more

44%

level

23%

Hegelmann II scores more

34%

Panevėžys II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Panevėžys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

L. PangonisOwn goal

21'

D. Pasilys

44'

D. Vaicekauskas← M. Malatokas

45'

N. Luksys

54'

E. Urbonas

55'

N. LuksysPenalty

62'

M. Malatokas

69'

N. Grudis← N. Grudis

69'

I. Venckus

72'

M. Sendzikas← M. Sendzikas

72'

K. Olsauskas← K. Olsauskas

74'

M. Malatokas

74'

M. Malatokas

75'

E. KausinisPenalty

80'

L. Jonaitis← L. Jonaitis

80'

D. Balsys← D. Balsys

80'

I. Lukosevicius← I. Lukosevicius

83'

K. Sonkevicius

90+5'

D. Balsys

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff