Panevėžys II 3–7 Babrungas: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Panevėžys II

FT

3 – 7

HT: 1 – 3

Babrungas

J. Okpanachi 89', 61'

M. Bacanin 31'

Pedro Bahia 86', 67', 23'

E. Baguzas 82', 70'

P. Borja 25'

T. Budrys 13'

10/31/2025

1 Lyga · Round 29Panevėžio futbolo akademijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Panevėžys II30%

×Draw23%

Babrungas48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panevėžys IIExpected goals in this matchBabrungas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.84

Panevėžys II

1.41

Babrungas

1.84

Babrungas creates 30% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 79 away

1.47

creates per match

1.67

2.01

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Panevėžys II

1.47

Babrungas

1.67

allows per match

Panevėžys II

2.01

Babrungas

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Babrungas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Babrungas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw

52%

Panevėžys II or Babrungas

77%

Draw or Babrungas

70%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

13%

Babrungas wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

76%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

41%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

17%

Babrungas 1+ goals

84%

Babrungas 2+ goals

55%

Babrungas 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

38%

Babrungas (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Babrungas away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Babrungas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Babrungas attack 1.67 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Panevėžys II scores more

30%

level

23%

Babrungas scores more

48%

Babrungas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

23'

25'

31'

32'

53'

J. Okpanachi← I. Lukosevicius

61'

64'

64'

67'

70'

75'

R. Kulbis← R. Lazdinauskas

75'

M. Pusnys← F. Steponavicius

75'

A. Butkus← M. Bacanin

77'

G. Paulauskas← L. Cepkauskas

77'

T. Ukrinas← K. Mantinis

82'

E. Baguzas

84'

M. Norvaisas← M. Skirmantas

86'

Pedro Bahia

89'

J. Okpanachi

Panevėžys

Babrungas

99

Kublickas

5

Latakas

6

Ajayi

7

⚽

▼

Borja

8

▼

Mantinis

9

⚽3

Bahia

10

▼

Robinho

11

▼

Skirmanta

14

⚽

Budrys

18

Tabata

22

▼

Cepkauska

12

▼

Valius

5

Bos

9

▼

Steponavi

10

Misiunas

11

▼

Lazdinaus

16

⚽

▼

Bacanin

23

Dzinga

25

▼

30

66

77

32'▲D. Bukel←▼L. Valius

53'▲J. Okpanachi←▼I. Lukosevicius

75'▲R. Kulbis←▼R. Lazdinauskas

75'▲M. Pusnys←▼F. Steponavicius

75'▲A. Butkus←▼M. Bacanin

Panevėžys II substitutes

13Bukel14Kulbis21Pusnys22Muraska29Okpanachi31Butkus

Manager: K. Petkus

64'▲E. Baguzas←▼P. Borja

64'▲E. Agyemang←▼Robinho

77'▲G. Paulauskas←▼L. Cepkauskas

77'▲T. Ukrinas←▼K. Mantinis

84'▲M. Norvaisas←▼M. Skirmantas

Babrungas substitutes

1Maltos3Barusas13Henrique20Paulauskas33Baguzas35Norvaisas55Agyemang77Ukrinas

Match Recap: Panevėžys II vs Babrungas

Babrungas beat Panevėžys II 7-3 in 1 Lyga on October 31, 2025.

Goals: T. Budrys (13'), Pedro Bahia (23', 67', 86'), P. Borja (25'), M. Bacanin (31'), J. Okpanachi (61', 89'), E. Baguzas (70', 82').

The match was played at Panevėžio futbolo akademijos stadionas in Panevėžys.

Panevėžys II vs Babrungas — 1 Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Panevėžys II vs Babrungas