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Babrungas vs Panevėžys II — 1 Lyga 2026

Babrungas
Babrungas
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
R. Martimiano 90+3'
P. Duarte 71', 45'
U. Elivelton 57'
Tata 10'
G. Zederstreimas 68'
K. Bicka 60'
8/4/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 17Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Babrungas55%
×Draw21%
Panevėžys II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Babrungas
2.16
Panevėžys II
1.36

Babrungas creates 59% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

creates per match

Babrungas
2.12
Panevėžys II
1.47

allows per match

Babrungas
1.26
Panevėžys II
2.19

finishing

Babrungas+0.00on par
Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Babrungas ↓

Panevėžys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Babrungas or draw
76%
Babrungas or Panevėžys II
79%
Draw or Panevėžys II
45%

Winning margin

Babrungas wins by 2+
34%
Panevėžys II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Babrungas 1+ goals
88%
Babrungas 2+ goals
63%
Babrungas 3+ goals
36%
Panevėžys II 1+ goals
74%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
39%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Babrungas (draw refunded)
70%
Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Babrungas at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Babrungas attack 2.12 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.16

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Babrungas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Babrungas scores more
55%
level
21%
Panevėžys II scores more
24%

Babrungas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Tata
45'
P. Duarte
57'
U. Elivelton
60'
K. Bicka
68'
G. Zederstreimas
71'
P. Duarte
81'
90+3'
R. Martimiano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Babrungas vs Panevėžys II

Babrungas beat Panevėžys II 5-2 in 1 Lyga on August 4, 2023.

Goals: Tata (10'), P. Duarte (45', 71'), U. Elivelton (57'), K. Bicka (60'), G. Zederstreimas (68'), R. Martimiano (90+3').

The match was played at Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Plungė.