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Panevėžys II vs Babrungas — 1 Lyga 2026

Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Babrungas
Babrungas
E. Agyemang 29'
A. Latakas 27'
Elivelton 9' (pen)
8/2/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 17Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Panevėžys II30%
×Draw23%
Babrungas48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panevėžys II
1.41
Babrungas
1.84

Babrungas creates 30% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 79 away

creates per match

Panevėžys II
1.47
Babrungas
1.67

allows per match

Panevėžys II
2.01
Babrungas
1.34

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par
Babrungas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Babrungas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw
52%
Panevėžys II or Babrungas
77%
Draw or Babrungas
70%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+
13%
Babrungas wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals
76%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
41%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
17%
Babrungas 1+ goals
84%
Babrungas 2+ goals
55%
Babrungas 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
38%
Babrungas (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Babrungas away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Babrungas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Babrungas attack 1.67 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Panevėžys II scores more
30%
level
23%
Babrungas scores more
48%

Babrungas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
N. Luksys
9'
EliveltonPenalty
26'
I. Lukosevicius← I. Lukosevicius
27'
A. Latakas
29'
E. Agyemang
34'
D. Balsys← D. Balsys
54'
A. Barusas
56'
A. Karvatskyi← D. Gleveckas
59'
K. Mantinis
63'
J. Gonzalez← K. Yakudi
63'
Ze Flores← Ze Flores
74'
T. Ukrinas← T. Ukrinas
74'
M. Kazbaras← M. Kazbaras
77'
R. Martimiano← R. Martimiano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Panevėžys II 0–3 Babrungas

Babrungas beat Panevėžys II 3-0 in 1 Lyga on August 2, 2024.

Goals: Elivelton (9' pen), A. Latakas (27'), E. Agyemang (29').

The match was played at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas in Panevėžys.