Panetolikos 1–3 Levadiakos: Result & Stats

Panetolikos

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Levadiakos

B. Nkololo 63'

P. Liagas 45'

G. Balzi 10'

I. Kosti 3'

1/19/2026

Super League 1 · Round 17Panetolikos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Panetolikos43%

×Draw29%

Levadiakos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanetolikosExpected goals in this matchLevadiakos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.97

Panetolikos

1.26

Levadiakos

0.97

Panetolikos creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.06

creates per match

0.90

1.03

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Panetolikos

1.06

Levadiakos

0.90

allows per match

Panetolikos

1.03

Levadiakos

1.46

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Panetolikos+0.23scores more

Levadiakos-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panetolikos ↓

Levadiakos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Panetolikos or draw

71%

Panetolikos or Levadiakos

71%

Draw or Levadiakos

57%

Winning margin

Panetolikos wins by 2+

19%

Levadiakos wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Panetolikos 1+ goals

72%

Panetolikos 2+ goals

36%

Panetolikos 3+ goals

13%

Levadiakos 1+ goals

62%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

25%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Panetolikos (draw refunded)

60%

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panetolikos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 7 matches

Levadiakos away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panetolikos attack 1.06 + Levadiakos defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Levadiakos attack 0.90 + Panetolikos defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Panetolikos scores more

43%

level

29%

Levadiakos scores more

29%

Panetolikos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Panetolikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

G. Balzi

Levadiakos · M

8.9

Match Events

3'

10'

25'

38'

45+3'

Fabricio PedrozoGoal cancelled

45'

P. Liagas↳ G. Balzi

46'

G. Granath← Esteban Diego

46'

E. Nikolaou← A. Bouchalakis

46'

J. Abu Hanna← H. Magnusson

59'

L. Jallow← G. Balzi

63'

B. Nkololo↳ A. Matan

73'

T. Filon← H. Layous

74'

A. Bregou← C. Mavrias

74'

P. Symelidis← S. Palacios

83'

D. Hoxha← K. Aleksic

87'

S. Juric← F. Pedrozo

90'

Lamarana Jallow

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PanetolikosLevadiakos

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots11

6Corners5

14Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots11

3On Target6

4Off Target1

9Blocked4

10Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

410Total Passes387

336Accurate Passes308

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1