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Levadiakos vs Panetolikos — Super League 1 2018

Levadiakos
Levadiakos
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Panetolikos
Panetolikos
S. Juric 90' (pen)
H. Layous 61'
S. Palacios 45' (pen)
F. Pedrozo 39', 14' (pen)
P. Symelidis 31'
10/5/2025Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 6Levadia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Levadiakos47%
×Draw24%
Panetolikos29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levadiakos
1.73
Panetolikos
1.32

Levadiakos creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Levadiakos
2.06
Panetolikos
0.75

allows per match

Levadiakos
1.89
Panetolikos
1.39

finishing

Levadiakos-0.23scores less
Panetolikos+0.54scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levadiakos ↓

Panetolikos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Levadiakos or draw
71%
Levadiakos or Panetolikos
76%
Draw or Panetolikos
53%

Winning margin

Levadiakos wins by 2+
25%
Panetolikos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Levadiakos 1+ goals
82%
Levadiakos 2+ goals
52%
Levadiakos 3+ goals
25%
Panetolikos 1+ goals
73%
Panetolikos 2+ goals
38%
Panetolikos 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Levadiakos (draw refunded)
62%
Panetolikos (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levadiakos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Panetolikos away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levadiakos attack 2.06 + Panetolikos defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.73

Panetolikos attack 0.75 + Levadiakos defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Levadiakos scores more
47%
level
24%
Panetolikos scores more
29%

Levadiakos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Levadiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
P. SymelidisLevadiakosLevadiakos · M
8.9

Match Events

12'
Sebastián PalaciosPenalty confirmed
14'
F. PedrozoPenalty
16'
Kosta Aleksić
31'
P. Symelidis
34'
Kosta Aleksić
34'
Kosta Aleksić
39'
F. Pedrozo↳ T. Tsapras
41'
N. Stajic← U. Garcia
45+3'
Sebastián PalaciosPenalty confirmed
45+4'
Christian Manrique
45'
S. PalaciosPenalty
46'
S. Kontouris← L. Kojic
59'
D. Galiatsos← C. Mavrias
61'
H. Layous↳ S. Palacios
65'
K. Goumas← E. Cokaj
65'
L. Jallow← H. Layous
73'
E. Nikolaou← C. Manrique
73'
J. Aguirre← Esteban Diego
78'
S. Juric← S. Palacios
79'
T. Filon← A. Tshibola
83'
H. Magnusson← J. Abu Hanna
90+6'
Sotiris Kontouris
90+6'
Sotiris KontourisCard upgrade
90'
S. JuricPenalty

Possession

71%Levadiakos

Shots

17Levadiakos

Pass accuracy

53%Levadiakos

Statistics

LevadiakosPanetolikos
Overview
71%Possession29%
17Total Shots7
6Corners2
11Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots7
10On Target1
5Off Target6
2Blocked0
13Inside Box6
4Outside Box1
Passing
71%Possession29%
621Total Passes253
573Accurate Passes203
92%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls9
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards2
1Offsides0

Super League 1: Levadiakos 6–0 Panetolikos

Levadiakos beat Panetolikos 6-0 in Super League 1 on October 5, 2025.

Goals: F. Pedrozo (14' pen, 39'), P. Symelidis (31'), S. Palacios (45' pen), H. Layous (61'), S. Juric (90' pen).

Levadiakos controlled possession (71%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Levadia Stadium in Levadia.