Levadiakos 1–2 Panetolikos: Result & Stats

Levadiakos

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Panetolikos

E. Nikolaou 11' (OG)

A. Tetteh 45+2'

G. Liavas 39' (pen)

5/14/2025

Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 8Stadio Levadias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Levadiakos47%

×Draw24%

Panetolikos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevadiakosExpected goals in this matchPanetolikos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.32

Levadiakos

1.73

Panetolikos

1.32

Levadiakos creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.06

creates per match

0.75

1.89

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Levadiakos

2.06

Panetolikos

0.75

allows per match

Levadiakos

1.89

Panetolikos

1.39

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.54scores more than expected

finishing

Levadiakos-0.23scores less

Panetolikos+0.54scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levadiakos ↓

Panetolikos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Levadiakos or draw

71%

Levadiakos or Panetolikos

76%

Draw or Panetolikos

53%

Winning margin

Levadiakos wins by 2+

25%

Panetolikos wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Levadiakos 1+ goals

82%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

52%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

25%

Panetolikos 1+ goals

73%

Panetolikos 2+ goals

38%

Panetolikos 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

62%

Panetolikos (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levadiakos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Panetolikos away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levadiakos attack 2.06 + Panetolikos defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.73

Panetolikos attack 0.75 + Levadiakos defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Levadiakos scores more

47%

level

24%

Panetolikos scores more

29%

Levadiakos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Levadiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Tetteh

Panetolikos · F

7.7

Match Events

11'

E. NikolaouOwn goal

22'

M. Moreira← L. Jallow

39'

G. LiavasPenalty

42'

44'

45'

45+2'

51'

64'

64'

P. Simelidis← B. Verbič

67'

A. Apostolopoulos← Daniel Lajud

74'

Andrews Tetteh

78'

G. Agapakis← C. Mavrias

79'

S. Kontouris← F. Pérez

79'

S. Lomónaco← A. Tetteh

82'

Joel Abu Hanna

83'

Maximiliano Moreira

83'

F. Pedrozo← A. Ožbolt

87'

D. Galiatsos← M. Bakakis

88'

Guillermo Balzi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevadiakosPanetolikos

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots10

8Corners5

12Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots10

1On Target2

8Off Target6

6Blocked2

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

544Total Passes306

455Accurate Passes231

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1