Pamba Jiji 1–0 Namungo: Result & Stats

Pamba Jiji

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Namungo

M. Tegisi 54'

2/10/2026

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 16CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Pamba Jiji48%

×Draw29%

Namungo24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pamba JijiExpected goals in this matchNamungo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.83

Pamba Jiji

1.30

Namungo

0.83

Pamba Jiji creates 57% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

1.25

creates per match

0.81

0.85

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Pamba Jiji

1.25

Namungo

0.81

allows per match

Pamba Jiji

0.85

Namungo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Namungo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamba Jiji ↓

Namungo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Pamba Jiji or draw

76%

Pamba Jiji or Namungo

71%

Draw or Namungo

52%

Winning margin

Pamba Jiji wins by 2+

22%

Namungo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Pamba Jiji 1+ goals

73%

Pamba Jiji 2+ goals

37%

Pamba Jiji 3+ goals

14%

Namungo 1+ goals

56%

Namungo 2+ goals

20%

Namungo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)

67%

Namungo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamba Jiji at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Namungo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamba Jiji attack 1.25 + Namungo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Namungo attack 0.81 + Pamba Jiji defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pamba Jiji scores more

48%

level

29%

Namungo scores more

24%

Pamba Jiji at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pamba Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

28'

35'

E. Lukinda← I. Abraham

54'

M. Tegisi

69'

82'

89'

Pamba

Namungo

43

6

14

60

5

12

24

50

29

26

10

33

15

3

▼

2

23

12

30

20

9

⚽

Tegisi

14

Camara

19

Lwasa

35'▲E. Lukinda←▼I. Abraham

Pamba Jiji substitutes

SamambaKasindi10NahimanaIbrahim17Nakibinge36KibailoRichard50Lukinda54LutonjaHussein

Namungo substitutes

Suleiman20MgunyaChamungu7Manyanya19Makambo30Lukindo3Buswita8Kikoti53RajabuJulius