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Namungo vs Pamba Jiji — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Namungo
Namungo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pamba Jiji
Pamba Jiji
10/28/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 9Majaliwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Namungo47%
×Draw29%
Pamba Jiji24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namungo
1.27
Pamba Jiji
0.82

Namungo creates 55% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 26 away

creates per match

Namungo
1.00
Pamba Jiji
0.58

allows per match

Namungo
1.06
Pamba Jiji
1.54

finishing

Namungo+0.00on par
Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namungo ↓

Pamba Jiji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Namungo or draw
76%
Namungo or Pamba Jiji
71%
Draw or Pamba Jiji
53%

Winning margin

Namungo wins by 2+
21%
Pamba Jiji wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Namungo 1+ goals
72%
Namungo 2+ goals
36%
Namungo 3+ goals
14%
Pamba Jiji 1+ goals
56%
Pamba Jiji 2+ goals
20%
Pamba Jiji 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Namungo (draw refunded)
66%
Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namungo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Pamba Jiji away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namungo attack 1.00 + Pamba Jiji defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pamba Jiji attack 0.58 + Namungo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Namungo scores more
47%
level
29%
Pamba Jiji scores more
24%

Namungo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Namungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Namungo 1–0 Pamba Jiji

Namungo beat Pamba Jiji 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 28, 2024.

The match was played at Majaliwa Stadium in Ruangwa.