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Pamba Jiji vs Namungo — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Pamba Jiji
Pamba Jiji
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Namungo
Namungo
4/2/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 24CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Pamba Jiji45%
×Draw30%
Namungo25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pamba Jiji
1.19
Namungo
0.81

Pamba Jiji creates 47% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pamba Jiji
1.08
Namungo
0.70

allows per match

Pamba Jiji
0.92
Namungo
1.30

finishing

Pamba Jiji+0.00on par
Namungo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamba Jiji ↓

Namungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Pamba Jiji or draw
75%
Pamba Jiji or Namungo
70%
Draw or Namungo
55%

Winning margin

Pamba Jiji wins by 2+
20%
Namungo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pamba Jiji 1+ goals
70%
Pamba Jiji 2+ goals
33%
Pamba Jiji 3+ goals
12%
Namungo 1+ goals
56%
Namungo 2+ goals
19%
Namungo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)
64%
Namungo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamba Jiji at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Namungo away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamba Jiji attack 1.08 + Namungo defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Namungo attack 0.70 + Pamba Jiji defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pamba Jiji scores more
45%
level
30%
Namungo scores more
25%

Pamba Jiji at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pamba Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pamba Jiji vs Namungo

Pamba Jiji and Namungo drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 2, 2025.

The match was played at CCM Kirumba Stadium in Mwanza.