Pamba Jiji 0–0 Dodoma Jiji: Result & Stats

Pamba Jiji

FT

0 – 0

Dodoma Jiji

8/24/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 2CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Pamba Jiji53%

×Draw27%

Dodoma Jiji20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pamba JijiExpected goals in this matchDodoma Jiji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.76

Pamba Jiji

1.44

Dodoma Jiji

0.76

Pamba Jiji creates 89% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

1.11

creates per match

0.58

0.93

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Pamba Jiji

1.11

Dodoma Jiji

0.58

allows per match

Pamba Jiji

0.93

Dodoma Jiji

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamba Jiji ↓

Dodoma Jiji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Pamba Jiji or draw

80%

Pamba Jiji or Dodoma Jiji

73%

Draw or Dodoma Jiji

47%

Winning margin

Pamba Jiji wins by 2+

27%

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Pamba Jiji 1+ goals

76%

Pamba Jiji 2+ goals

42%

Pamba Jiji 3+ goals

18%

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals

53%

Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals

18%

Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)

73%

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamba Jiji at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Dodoma Jiji away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamba Jiji attack 1.11 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dodoma Jiji attack 0.58 + Pamba Jiji defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pamba Jiji scores more

53%

level

27%

Dodoma Jiji scores more

20%

Pamba Jiji at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pamba Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff