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Dodoma Jiji vs Pamba Jiji — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
AWD
0 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Pamba Jiji
Pamba Jiji
10/25/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 6Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dodoma Jiji50%
×Draw29%
Pamba Jiji21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dodoma Jiji
1.29
Pamba Jiji
0.73

Dodoma Jiji creates 77% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 21 away

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji
1.06
Pamba Jiji
0.52

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji
0.94
Pamba Jiji
1.52

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par
Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Pamba Jiji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw
79%
Dodoma Jiji or Pamba Jiji
71%
Draw or Pamba Jiji
50%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
23%
Pamba Jiji wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
72%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
37%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
14%
Pamba Jiji 1+ goals
52%
Pamba Jiji 2+ goals
17%
Pamba Jiji 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
70%
Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Pamba Jiji away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.06 + Pamba Jiji defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pamba Jiji attack 0.52 + Dodoma Jiji defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more
50%
level
29%
Pamba Jiji scores more
21%

Dodoma Jiji at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dodoma Jiji face Pamba Jiji (Ligi kuu Bara)

Ligi kuu Bara returns with Dodoma Jiji hosting Pamba Jiji. Match starts October 25, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dodoma Jiji host Pamba Jiji at Jamhuri Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.