Dodoma Jiji 0–1 Pamba Jiji: Result & Stats

Dodoma Jiji

FT

0 – 1

Pamba Jiji

2/6/2025

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 17Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dodoma Jiji50%

×Draw29%

Pamba Jiji21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dodoma JijiExpected goals in this matchPamba Jiji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.72

Dodoma Jiji

1.29

Pamba Jiji

0.72

Dodoma Jiji creates 79% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 26 away

1.03

creates per match

0.58

0.86

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji

1.03

Pamba Jiji

0.58

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji

0.86

Pamba Jiji

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Pamba Jiji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw

79%

Dodoma Jiji or Pamba Jiji

71%

Draw or Pamba Jiji

50%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+

23%

Pamba Jiji wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals

72%

Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals

37%

Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals

14%

Pamba Jiji 1+ goals

51%

Pamba Jiji 2+ goals

16%

Pamba Jiji 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)

71%

Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 36 matches

Pamba Jiji away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.03 + Pamba Jiji defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pamba Jiji attack 0.58 + Dodoma Jiji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more

50%

level

29%

Pamba Jiji scores more

21%

Dodoma Jiji at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff