Pamba Jiji 3–0 Coastal Union: Result & Stats

Pamba Jiji

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coastal Union

M. Tegisi 90'

S. Nahimana 76', 71'

2/6/2026

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 15CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pamba Jiji45%

×Draw29%

Coastal Union26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pamba JijiExpected goals in this matchCoastal Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.89

Pamba Jiji

1.27

Coastal Union

0.89

Pamba Jiji creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

0.78

1.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Pamba Jiji

1.33

Coastal Union

0.78

allows per match

Pamba Jiji

1.00

Coastal Union

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamba Jiji ↓

Coastal Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Pamba Jiji or draw

74%

Pamba Jiji or Coastal Union

71%

Draw or Coastal Union

55%

Winning margin

Pamba Jiji wins by 2+

21%

Coastal Union wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pamba Jiji 1+ goals

72%

Pamba Jiji 2+ goals

36%

Pamba Jiji 3+ goals

14%

Coastal Union 1+ goals

59%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

22%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)

63%

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamba Jiji at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamba Jiji attack 1.33 + Coastal Union defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coastal Union attack 0.78 + Pamba Jiji defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pamba Jiji scores more

45%

level

29%

Coastal Union scores more

26%

Pamba Jiji at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pamba Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

J. Nakibinge← A. Yonta Camara

60'

A. Mangalo

60'

A. Segeja← J. Msuva

64'

K. Naftal

69'

S. Nahimana← S. Oyugi Siwa

71'

S. Nahimana

75'

P. Lwasa

76'

S. Nahimana↳ Z. Mayombya

82'

82'

83'

83'

90'

Pamba

Coastal

25

▼

Kichuya

23

Mustapha

16

Manyasi

9

▼

Maulid

5

Msangi

33

▼

10

40

15

33

▼

23

24

▼

Naftal

30

A

Mayombya

2

Mangalo

19

▼

Lwasa

14

▼

Camara

9

⚽

Tegisi

3

Abraham

52'▲J. Nakibinge←▼A. Yonta Camara

69'▲S. Nahimana←▼S. Oyugi Siwa

82'▲S. Antwi←▼K. Naftal

82'▲H. Lutonja←▼P. Lwasa

Pamba Jiji substitutes

12Antwi54LutonjaCharles17NakibingeKasindi10Nahimana36JafariRichardSamamba

60'▲A. Segeja←▼J. Msuva

83'▲B. Msimu←▼S. Kichuya

83'▲K. Gradi←▼M. Maulid

Coastal Union substitutes

34Mwanza19Msimu11SegejaGradi26Rasimos18Ramadhani63Said2William42Abdallah

Ligi kuu Bara: Pamba Jiji 3–0 Coastal Union

Pamba Jiji beat Coastal Union 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 6, 2026.

Goals: S. Nahimana (71', 76'), M. Tegisi (90').

The match was played at CCM Kirumba Stadium in Mwanza.

Pamba Jiji vs Coastal Union — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligi kuu Bara: Pamba Jiji 3–0 Coastal Union