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Coastal Union vs Pamba Jiji — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Coastal Union
Coastal Union
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pamba Jiji
Pamba Jiji
M. Maulid 47', 45+3'
S. Nahimana 65'
6/30/2026Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 30Mkwakwani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Coastal Union47%
×Draw30%
Pamba Jiji22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coastal Union
1.19
Pamba Jiji
0.72

Coastal Union creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Coastal Union
0.82
Pamba Jiji
0.45

allows per match

Coastal Union
1.00
Pamba Jiji
1.55

finishing

Coastal Union+0.00on par
Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Union ↓

Pamba Jiji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Coastal Union or draw
78%
Coastal Union or Pamba Jiji
70%
Draw or Pamba Jiji
53%

Winning margin

Coastal Union wins by 2+
21%
Pamba Jiji wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Coastal Union 1+ goals
70%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
33%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
12%
Pamba Jiji 1+ goals
51%
Pamba Jiji 2+ goals
16%
Pamba Jiji 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Coastal Union (draw refunded)
68%
Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Union at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Pamba Jiji away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Union attack 0.82 + Pamba Jiji defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.19

Pamba Jiji attack 0.45 + Coastal Union defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Coastal Union scores more
47%
level
30%
Pamba Jiji scores more
22%

Coastal Union at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Coastal Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'
M. Maulid↳ C. Mkandala
46'
J. Masami← A. Rasimos
47'
M. Maulid↳ S. Kichuya
65'
S. Nahimana↳ Z. Mayombya

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coastal Union vs Pamba Jiji

Coastal Union beat Pamba Jiji 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 30, 2026.

Goals: M. Maulid (45+3', 47'), S. Nahimana (65').

The match was played at Mkwakwani Stadium in Tanga.