Pamba Jiji 2–0 Coastal Union: Result & Stats

Pamba Jiji

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Coastal Union

2/15/2025

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 19CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Pamba Jiji47%

×Draw29%

Coastal Union23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pamba JijiExpected goals in this matchCoastal Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.80

Pamba Jiji

1.27

Coastal Union

0.80

Pamba Jiji creates 59% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

1.25

creates per match

0.76

0.85

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Pamba Jiji

1.25

Coastal Union

0.76

allows per match

Pamba Jiji

0.85

Coastal Union

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamba Jiji ↓

Coastal Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Pamba Jiji or draw

77%

Pamba Jiji or Coastal Union

71%

Draw or Coastal Union

53%

Winning margin

Pamba Jiji wins by 2+

22%

Coastal Union wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pamba Jiji 1+ goals

72%

Pamba Jiji 2+ goals

36%

Pamba Jiji 3+ goals

14%

Coastal Union 1+ goals

55%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

19%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)

67%

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamba Jiji at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamba Jiji attack 1.25 + Coastal Union defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coastal Union attack 0.76 + Pamba Jiji defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pamba Jiji scores more

47%

level

29%

Coastal Union scores more

23%

Pamba Jiji at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pamba Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff