Palmeiras 2–1 Independiente del Valle

Palmeiras

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Independiente del Valle

G. Gómez 45+3' (pen)

R. Rios 36'

L. Díaz 64'

5/16/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Allianz Parque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Palmeiras59%

×Draw24%

Independiente del Valle18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalmeirasExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.81

Palmeiras

1.71

Independiente del Valle

0.81

Palmeiras creates 111% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.93

creates per match

1.01

0.62

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Palmeiras

1.93

Independiente del Valle

1.01

allows per match

Palmeiras

0.62

Independiente del Valle

1.48

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

Palmeiras-0.10scores less

Independiente del Valle-0.44scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Palmeiras or draw

82%

Palmeiras or Independiente del Valle

76%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

41%

Winning margin

Palmeiras wins by 2+

33%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Palmeiras 1+ goals

82%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

51%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

24%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

56%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

19%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

77%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.62 · 6 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras attack 1.93 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

Independiente del Valle attack 1.01 + Palmeiras defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Palmeiras scores more

59%

level

24%

Independiente del Valle scores more

18%

Palmeiras at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Palmeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Díaz

Independiente del Valle · F

7.9

Match Events

30'

Beder Caicedo

36'

R. Rios

44'

Anthony Landázuri

45+3'

G. GómezPenalty

46'

J. Lerma← Rrenato Ibarra

46'

L. Díaz← K. Arroyo

60'

Raphael Veiga← Endrick

64'

L. Díaz↳ R. Schunke

70'

Rony← J. López

70'

Mayke← Estêvão

77'

Y. Medina← B. Caicedo

77'

A. Bolaños← M. Hoyos

82'

Rômulo← Lázaro

82'

Luan← R. Rios

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalmeirasIndependiente

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots11

1.46Expected Goals (xG)0.38

3Corners3

15Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target5

4Off Target4

6Blocked2

7Inside Box3

5Outside Box8

Passing

47%Possession53%

334Total Passes393

257Accurate Passes308

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

-0.91Goals Prevented-0.91

Discipline

15Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2