Independiente del Valle 0–1 Palmeiras

Independiente del Valle

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Palmeiras

Raphael Veiga 43' (pen)

5/12/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group A - 4Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Independiente del Valle46%

×Draw25%

Palmeiras29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchPalmeiras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.21

Independiente del Valle

1.59

Palmeiras

1.21

Independiente del Valle creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

2.03

creates per match

1.49

0.92

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.03

Palmeiras

1.49

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.92

Palmeiras

1.16

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente del Valle-0.25scores less

Palmeiras-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Palmeiras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

71%

Independiente del Valle or Palmeiras

75%

Draw or Palmeiras

54%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

24%

Palmeiras wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

80%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

47%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

21%

Palmeiras 1+ goals

70%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

34%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

61%

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.92 · 9 matches

Palmeiras away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.16 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.03 + Palmeiras defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.59

Palmeiras attack 1.49 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

46%

level

25%

Palmeiras scores more

29%

Independiente del Valle at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Weverton

Palmeiras · G

7.5

Match Events

28'

29'

33'

39'

42'

43'

Raphael VeigaPenalty

64'

Danilo Barbosa← Luiz Adriano

72'

Danilo← Patrick de Paula

76'

B. García← C. Pellerano

77'

J. Escobar← A. Landázuri

84'

F. Guerrero← J. Sánchez

84'

B. Montenegro← P. Vite

89'

Gustavo Scarpa← Felipe Melo

89'

Mayke← Raphael Veiga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependientePalmeiras

Overview

71%Possession29%

22Total Shots5

10Corners3

13Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots5

3On Target3

11Off Target2

8Blocked0

7Inside Box4

15Outside Box1

Passing

71%Possession29%

648Total Passes256

577Accurate Passes185

89%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides8

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 0–1 Palmeiras

Palmeiras beat Independiente del Valle 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 12, 2021.

Goals: Raphael Veiga (43' pen).

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (71%) and registered 22 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.

Independiente del Valle vs Palmeiras — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 0–1 Palmeiras