Independiente del Valle 2–3 Palmeiras

Independiente del Valle

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Palmeiras

M. Hoyos 38'

K. Páez 12'

Luis Guilherme 90+5'

Lázaro 81'

Endrick 45+2'

4/25/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Independiente del Valle40%

×Draw25%

Palmeiras35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchPalmeiras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.34

Independiente del Valle

1.44

Palmeiras

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.73

creates per match

1.49

1.19

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.73

Palmeiras

1.49

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

1.19

Palmeiras

1.16

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.10scores more

Palmeiras-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Palmeiras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

65%

Independiente del Valle or Palmeiras

75%

Draw or Palmeiras

60%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

19%

Palmeiras wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

76%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

42%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

18%

Palmeiras 1+ goals

74%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

39%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

53%

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.19 · 6 matches

Palmeiras away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.16 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.73 + Palmeiras defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.44

Palmeiras attack 1.49 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

40%

level

25%

Palmeiras scores more

35%

Independiente del Valle at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

K. Páez

Independiente del Valle · M

8.2

Match Events

12'

K. Páez↳ C. Zabala

16'

Michael Hoyos

38'

M. Hoyos↳ K. Páez

45+2'

Endrick↳ Rony

55'

R. López← M. Hoyos

55'

Y. Medina← Romario Ibarra

65'

Estêvão← Raphael Veiga

65'

Luis Guilherme← Mayke

74'

Joao Ortíz

76'

Beder Caicedo

77'

K. Arroyo← Rrenato Ibarra

78'

P. Mercado← C. Zabala

78'

J. López← Rony

78'

Vanderlan← Luan

78'

Lázaro← Endrick

80'

Vanderlan

81'

Lázaro↳ J. López

90+1'

Richard Ríos

90+5'

Luis Guilherme↳ Lázaro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependientePalmeiras

Overview

69%Possession31%

16Total Shots7

1.18Expected Goals (xG)0.86

5Corners6

11Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots7

6On Target4

7Off Target0

3Blocked3

11Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

542Total Passes235

462Accurate Passes169

85%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 2–3 Palmeiras

Palmeiras beat Independiente del Valle 3-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 25, 2024.

Goals: K. Páez (12'), M. Hoyos (38'), Endrick (45+2'), Lázaro (81'), Luis Guilherme (90+5').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.

Independiente del Valle vs Palmeiras — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 2–3 Palmeiras