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Palmeiras U20 vs RB Bragantino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
Preview
18:00
RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
7/26/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 8
Big match
56%
Palmeiras U20
model favours
56%20%25%

Palmeiras U20 have scored in 22 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Palmeiras U2056%
×Draw20%
RB Bragantino U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U20
2.35
RB Bragantino U20
1.53

Palmeiras U20 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 24 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U20
3.96
RB Bragantino U20
2.54

allows per match

Palmeiras U20
0.52
RB Bragantino U20
0.75

finishing

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par
RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U20 ↓

RB Bragantino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Palmeiras U20 or draw
75%
Palmeiras U20 or RB Bragantino U20
80%
Draw or RB Bragantino U20
44%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
35%
RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
90%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
68%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
41%
RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
78%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
45%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
69%
RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U20 at home — creates 3.96, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

RB Bragantino U20 away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U20 attack 3.96 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 2.35

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.54 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Palmeiras U20 scores more
56%
level
20%
RB Bragantino U20 scores more
25%

Palmeiras U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • RB Bragantino U20 have scored in 20 games running
  • When RB Bragantino U20 score first, they win 100% of the time
  • Palmeiras U20 are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • When Palmeiras U20 score first, they win 83% of the time
  • 70% of RB Bragantino U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (64% and 70% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DDWDW
U20
DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Palmeiras U20 vs RB Bragantino U20 — Match Preview

Palmeiras U20 face RB Bragantino U20 on July 26, 2026 in this Paulista - U20 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.