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Palermo vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Palermo
Palermo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Spezia
Spezia
S. Moreo 40'
M. Jajalo 32'
G. Maggiore 44', 30'
5/1/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 36Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Palermo51%
×Draw22%
Spezia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo
1.92
Spezia
1.35

Palermo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Palermo
1.94
Spezia
1.71

allows per match

Palermo
0.99
Spezia
1.90

finishing

Palermo+0.39scores more
Spezia-0.54scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Palermo or draw
73%
Palermo or Spezia
78%
Draw or Spezia
49%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+
29%
Spezia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals
85%
Palermo 2+ goals
57%
Palermo 3+ goals
30%
Spezia 1+ goals
74%
Spezia 2+ goals
39%
Spezia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)
65%
Spezia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.99 · 12 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.90 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.94 + Spezia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.92

Spezia attack 1.71 + Palermo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Palermo scores more
51%
level
22%
Spezia scores more
27%

Palermo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
G. Maggiore↳ D. Okereke
32'
M. Jajalo↳ N. Haas
40'
S. Moreo
44'
G. Maggiore↳ D. Okereke
61'
Nicolas Haas
70'
Slobodan Rajkovic
72'
Luca Mora
73'
A. Mazzotta← H. Aleesami
74'
M. Crimi← G. Maggiore
76'
A. Trajkovski← C. Falletti
77'
N. Pierini← D. Okereke
82'
G. Puşcaş← S. Moreo
83'
Radoslaw Murawski
88'
P. Bartolomei← L. Mora

Possession

49%Palermo

Statistics

PalermoSpezia
Overview
49%Possession51%
8Corners1
15Fouls13
Shots
4On Target4
7Off Target4
Passing
49%Possession51%
Discipline
15Fouls13
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
4Offsides2

Serie B: Palermo 2–2 Spezia

Palermo and Spezia drew 2-2 in Serie B on May 1, 2019.

Goals: G. Maggiore (30', 44'), M. Jajalo (32'), S. Moreo (40').

Spezia dominated possession with 51% of the ball.

The match was played at Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo).