Palermo 2–1 Mantova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Mantova

J. Pohjanpalo 38'

F. Ranocchia 2'

T. Marras 68' (pen)

3/4/2026

Serie B · Round 28Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Palermo53%

×Draw24%

Mantova22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.99

Palermo

1.67

Mantova

0.99

Palermo creates 69% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 38 away

1.63

creates per match

1.05

0.94

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Palermo

1.63

Mantova

1.05

allows per match

Palermo

0.94

Mantova

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palermo+0.00on par

Mantova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

78%

Palermo or Mantova

76%

Draw or Mantova

47%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

29%

Mantova wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

81%

Palermo 2+ goals

50%

Palermo 3+ goals

23%

Mantova 1+ goals

63%

Mantova 2+ goals

26%

Mantova 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

70%

Mantova (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.94 · 98 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.63 + Mantova defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Mantova attack 1.05 + Palermo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Palermo scores more

53%

level

24%

Mantova scores more

22%

Palermo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

T. Augello

Palermo · M

8.2

Match Events

2'

F. Ranocchia↳ T. Augello

17'

19'

32'

32'

38'

J. Pohjanpalo↳ A. Palumbo

46'

A. Blin← F. Ranocchia

46'

F. Paoletti← D. Bragantini

54'

T. Maggioni← A. Dembele

54'

T. Marras← D. Mensah

66'

Alexis BlinCard upgrade

67'

Alexis Blin

68'

T. MarrasPenalty

69'

70'

71'

75'

77'

D. Johnsen← J. Le Douaron

77'

N. Buso← M. Caprini

77'

L. Mancuso← A. Castellini

81'

Patryk Peda

85'

E. Gyasi← N. Pierozzi

85'

G. Magnani← P. Peda

90+2'

Emmanuel Gyasi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalermoMantova

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots7

1.48Expected Goals (xG)1.05

9Corners2

23Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots7

5On Target3

9Off Target2

3Blocked2

12Inside Box2

5Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

364Total Passes321

297Accurate Passes252

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.75Goals Prevented-0.75

Discipline

23Fouls12

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

0Offsides4