Mantova 0–0 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Palermo

10/30/2024

Serie B · Round 11Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Mantova39%

×Draw27%

Palermo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.25

Mantova

1.33

Palermo

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

1.23

creates per match

1.45

1.04

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Mantova

1.23

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Mantova

1.04

Palermo

1.43

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Mantova+0.15scores more

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

65%

Mantova or Palermo

73%

Draw or Palermo

61%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

17%

Palermo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

74%

Mantova 2+ goals

38%

Mantova 3+ goals

15%

Palermo 1+ goals

71%

Palermo 2+ goals

36%

Palermo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

53%

Palermo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.04 · 8 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.23 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Palermo attack 1.45 + Mantova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mantova scores more

39%

level

27%

Palermo scores more

35%

Mantova at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Insigne

Palermo · M

7.9

Match Events

34'

Pietro Ceccaroni

46'

K. Lund← P. Ceccaroni

57'

Francesco GaluppiniGoal cancelled

57'

J. Le Douaron← T. Henry

71'

F. Ruocco← A. Fiori

71'

V. Verre← F. Ranocchia

71'

S. Appuah← R. Insigne

72'

D. Bragantini← F. Galuppini

73'

Salim Diakité

77'

A. Debenedetti← L. Mancuso

78'

M. Solini← C. Bani

79'

F. Di Francesco← F. Di Mariano

85'

F. Brignani← S. Cella

90+2'

Federico Artioli

90+5'

Jérémy Le Douaron

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaPalermo

Overview

67%Possession33%

6Total Shots13

4Corners4

12Fouls29

Shots

6Total Shots13

1On Target4

3Off Target6

2Blocked3

2Inside Box10

4Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

583Total Passes279

515Accurate Passes222

88%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls29

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0