Mantova 1–1 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Palermo

T. Marras 90'

P. Ceccaroni 8'

1/11/2026

Serie B · Round 19Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Mantova39%

×Draw27%

Palermo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.25

Mantova

1.33

Palermo

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

1.23

creates per match

1.45

1.04

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Mantova

1.23

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Mantova

1.04

Palermo

1.43

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Mantova+0.15scores more

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

65%

Mantova or Palermo

73%

Draw or Palermo

61%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

17%

Palermo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

74%

Mantova 2+ goals

38%

Mantova 3+ goals

15%

Palermo 1+ goals

71%

Palermo 2+ goals

36%

Palermo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

53%

Palermo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.04 · 8 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.23 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Palermo attack 1.45 + Mantova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mantova scores more

39%

level

27%

Palermo scores more

35%

Mantova at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

96

T. Maggioni

Mantova · D

8.0

Match Events

8'

P. Ceccaroni↳ A. Vasic

10'

Pietro CeccaroniGoal confirmed

37'

Filippo Ranocchia

53'

Simone Trimboli

59'

D. Mensah← F. Ruocco

59'

F. Paoletti← T. Maggioni

60'

F. Zuccon← S. Trimboli

64'

J. Le Douaron← A. Vasic

70'

C. Gomes← F. Ranocchia

70'

B. Bereszynski← P. Peda

70'

A. Blin← A. Palumbo

76'

T. Marras← A. Fiori

76'

D. Bragantini← C. Falletti

78'

82'

83'

90+3'

90+2'

Alessio CastelliniRed card cancelled

90'

T. Marras↳ D. Wieser

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaPalermo

Overview

64%Possession36%

7Total Shots18

0.27Expected Goals (xG)1.91

3Corners6

7Fouls18

Shots

7Total Shots18

2On Target6

4Off Target8

1Blocked4

3Inside Box14

4Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

601Total Passes328

470Accurate Passes231

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls18

3Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Mantova vs Palermo

Mantova and Palermo drew 1-1 in Serie B on January 11, 2026.

Goals: P. Ceccaroni (8'), T. Marras (90').

Mantova controlled possession (64%) and registered 7 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.

Mantova vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mantova vs Palermo