Palermo 0–0 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cesena

9/21/2024

Serie B · Round 6Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Palermo52%

×Draw25%

Cesena23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.97

Palermo

1.59

Cesena

0.97

Palermo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 45 away

1.63

creates per match

1.00

0.94

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Palermo

1.63

Cesena

1.00

allows per match

Palermo

0.94

Cesena

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palermo+0.00on par

Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

77%

Palermo or Cesena

75%

Draw or Cesena

48%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

27%

Cesena wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

80%

Palermo 2+ goals

47%

Palermo 3+ goals

21%

Cesena 1+ goals

62%

Cesena 2+ goals

25%

Cesena 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

69%

Cesena (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.94 · 98 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.63 + Cesena defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cesena attack 1.00 + Palermo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Palermo scores more

52%

level

25%

Cesena scores more

23%

Palermo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Desplanches

Palermo · G

8.3

Match Events

9'

Thomas HenryGoal cancelled

29'

40'

45+1'

46'

53'

56'

61'

J. Le Douaron← R. Insigne

62'

D. Šarić← J. Segre

67'

Augustus KargboGoal cancelled

69'

Giacomo Calò

70'

Dario Šarić

72'

M. Brunori← T. Henry

74'

L. Mendicino← G. Calò

75'

M. Antonucci← C. Shpendi

75'

E. Tavşan← E. Adamo

79'

Andrea Ciofi

79'

S. Appuah← F. Di Mariano

79'

A. Vasić← C. Gomes

89'

Giuseppe Prestia

89'

S. van Hooijdonk← A. Kargbo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalermoCesena

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots11

4Corners4

15Fouls21

Shots

15Total Shots11

1On Target7

10Off Target2

4Blocked2

7Inside Box6

8Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

364Total Passes336

303Accurate Passes270

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls21

4Yellow Cards5

2Offsides7

Serie B: Palermo 0–0 Cesena

Palermo and Cesena drew 0-0 in Serie B on September 21, 2024.

Palermo controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo.

Palermo vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Palermo 0–0 Cesena