Cesena 2–1 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Palermo

D. Šarić 46'

G. Calò 37'

N. Pierozzi 45+6'

5/4/2025

Serie B · Round 37Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cesena43%

×Draw24%

Palermo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.33

Cesena

1.59

Palermo

1.33

Cesena creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

1.75

creates per match

1.45

1.22

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Cesena

1.75

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Cesena

1.22

Palermo

1.43

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Cesena-0.42scores less

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

68%

Cesena or Palermo

76%

Draw or Palermo

57%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

22%

Palermo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

80%

Cesena 2+ goals

47%

Cesena 3+ goals

21%

Palermo 1+ goals

74%

Palermo 2+ goals

38%

Palermo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

58%

Palermo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.75 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Palermo attack 1.45 + Cesena defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cesena scores more

43%

level

24%

Palermo scores more

32%

Cesena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

J. Klinsmann

Cesena · G

8.0

Match Events

37'

G. Calò↳ G. Prestia

41'

Niccolò Pierozzi

45+5'

Joel PohjanpaloMissed penalty

45+2'

Salim Diakité

45+6'

N. Pierozzi↳ F. Ranocchia

46'

D. Šarić↳ J. Ceesay

53'

Matteo Piacentini

57'

J. Segre← V. Verre

57'

M. Brunori← J. Le Douaron

57'

F. Di Francesco← K. Lund

61'

A. Ciofi← M. Piacentini

75'

R. Insigne← F. Ranocchia

78'

M. Antonucci← T. Berti

78'

L. Mendicino← S. Bastoni

80'

Joseph Ceesay

82'

F. Di Mariano← S. Diakité

86'

D. Donnarumma← J. Ceesay

86'

S. Pieraccini← M. Mangraviti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaPalermo

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots19

6Corners4

23Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots19

5On Target6

6Off Target8

1Blocked5

10Inside Box15

2Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

291Total Passes461

230Accurate Passes405

79%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Serie B: Cesena 2–1 Palermo

Cesena beat Palermo 2-1 in Serie B on May 4, 2025.

Goals: G. Calò (37'), N. Pierozzi (45+6'), D. Šarić (46').

Palermo controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.

Cesena vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cesena 2–1 Palermo