Cesena 1–1 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Palermo

J. Blesa 34'

M. Bani 56'

9/27/2025

Serie B · Round 5Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cesena43%

×Draw24%

Palermo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.33

Cesena

1.59

Palermo

1.33

Cesena creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

1.75

creates per match

1.45

1.22

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Cesena

1.75

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Cesena

1.22

Palermo

1.43

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Cesena-0.42scores less

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

68%

Cesena or Palermo

76%

Draw or Palermo

57%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

22%

Palermo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

80%

Cesena 2+ goals

47%

Cesena 3+ goals

21%

Palermo 1+ goals

74%

Palermo 2+ goals

38%

Palermo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

58%

Palermo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.75 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Palermo attack 1.45 + Cesena defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cesena scores more

43%

level

24%

Palermo scores more

32%

Cesena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Bani

Palermo · D

7.9

Match Events

13'

Giovanni Zaro

34'

J. Blesa

46'

A. Blin← J. Segre

56'

M. Bani↳ T. Augello

57'

Michele Castagnetti

62'

S. Bastoni← M. Castagnetti

62'

S. Balde← C. Shpendi

64'

M. Brunori← J. Le Douaron

64'

P. Peda← E. Gyasi

68'

Alexis Blin

69'

S. Giovane← A. Palumbo

70'

M. Guidi← R. Ciervo

70'

D. Bisoli← T. Berti

82'

A. Vasic← C. Gomes

86'

M. Piacentini← A. Ciofi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaPalermo

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots10

2Corners1

14Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots10

2On Target2

8Off Target4

3Blocked4

10Inside Box9

3Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

441Total Passes436

363Accurate Passes342

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1