Palermo 5–0 Carrarese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Carrarese

J. Pohjanpalo 88', 82' (pen), 48'

A. Palumbo 44'

J. Segre 24'

11/29/2025

Serie B · Round 14Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Palermo66%

×Draw19%

Carrarese14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchCarrarese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.87

Palermo

2.15

Carrarese

0.87

Palermo creates 147% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

2.44

creates per match

0.99

0.75

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Palermo

2.44

Carrarese

0.99

allows per match

Palermo

0.75

Carrarese

1.86

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Palermo+0.36scores more

Carrarese-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Carrarese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

86%

Palermo or Carrarese

81%

Draw or Carrarese

34%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

42%

Carrarese wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

88%

Palermo 2+ goals

63%

Palermo 3+ goals

36%

Carrarese 1+ goals

58%

Carrarese 2+ goals

22%

Carrarese 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

83%

Carrarese (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.75 · 5 matches

Carrarese away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.86 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 2.44 + Carrarese defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.15

Carrarese attack 0.99 + Palermo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Palermo scores more

66%

level

19%

Carrarese scores more

14%

Palermo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Pohjanpalo

Palermo · F

10.0

Match Events

24'

J. Segre↳ J. Pohjanpalo

30'

Antonio Palumbo

33'

A. Vasic← J. Le Douaron

40'

Julián Illanes

44'

A. Palumbo↳ J. Segre

46'

M. Finotto← N. Sekulov

48'

J. Pohjanpalo

51'

K. Bozhanaj← E. Zuelli

61'

S. Giovane← A. Palumbo

61'

D. Veroli← P. Ceccaroni

67'

N. Belloni← M. Cicconi

68'

T. Rubino← F. Abiuso

72'

Aljoša Vasić

78'

Mattia Finotto

79'

G. Parlanti← N. Schiavi

80'

Nicolò Calabrese

82'

J. PohjanpaloPenalty

83'

M. Brunori← J. Segre

83'

P. Peda← M. Bani

88'

J. Pohjanpalo↳ N. Pierozzi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalermoCarrarese

Overview

55%Possession45%

21Total Shots7

4.25Expected Goals (xG)0.31

3Corners4

17Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots7

9On Target2

8Off Target4

4Blocked1

14Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

469Total Passes400

399Accurate Passes321

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2