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Carrarese vs Palermo — Serie B 2021

Carrarese
Carrarese
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Palermo
Palermo
J. Pohjanpalo 19'
3/8/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 29Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Carrarese42%
×Draw27%
Palermo30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrarese
1.35
Palermo
1.10

Carrarese creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 79 away

creates per match

Carrarese
1.32
Palermo
1.29

allows per match

Carrarese
0.92
Palermo
1.38

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par
Palermo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Palermo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw
70%
Carrarese or Palermo
73%
Draw or Palermo
58%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+
20%
Palermo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals
74%
Carrarese 2+ goals
39%
Carrarese 3+ goals
15%
Palermo 1+ goals
67%
Palermo 2+ goals
30%
Palermo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)
58%
Palermo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Palermo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Palermo attack 1.29 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carrarese scores more
42%
level
27%
Palermo scores more
30%

Carrarese at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66
J. JoronenPalermoPalermo · G
7.9

Match Events

19'
J. Pohjanpalo↳ J. Le Douaron
44'
Ernesto Torregrossa
46'
B. Bereszynski← E. Gyasi
46'
J. Segre← C. Gomes
51'
G. Magnani← P. Peda
65'
D. Johnsen← J. Le Douaron
66'
T. Rubino← F. Melegoni
67'
J. Rouhi← N. Belloni
78'
F. Di Stefano← E. Torregrossa
87'
N. Sekulov← L. Hasa
87'
D. Bouah← N. Calabrese
87'
S. Giovane← A. Palumbo
90'
Mattia Finotto
90'
Mattia Bani

Possession

61%Carrarese

Shots

13Carrarese

Pass accuracy

53%Carrarese

Statistics

CarraresePalermo
Overview
61%Possession39%
13Total Shots13
1.74Expected Goals (xG)1.70
9Corners5
14Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots13
3On Target6
8Off Target2
2Blocked5
8Inside Box7
5Outside Box6
Passing
61%Possession39%
425Total Passes283
342Accurate Passes197
80%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
0.63Goals Prevented0.63
Discipline
14Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Carrarese vs Palermo

Palermo beat Carrarese 1-0 in Serie B on March 8, 2026.

Goals: J. Pohjanpalo (19').

Carrarese controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.