Palermo 1–1 Carrarese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Carrarese

J. Le Douaron 86'

S. Shpendi 16'

5/13/2025

Serie B · Round 34Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Palermo63%

×Draw21%

Carrarese16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchCarrarese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.87

Palermo

1.98

Carrarese

0.87

Palermo creates 128% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.44

creates per match

0.99

0.75

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Palermo

2.44

Carrarese

0.99

allows per match

Palermo

0.75

Carrarese

1.53

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Palermo+0.36scores more

Carrarese-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Carrarese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

84%

Palermo or Carrarese

79%

Draw or Carrarese

37%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

38%

Carrarese wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

86%

Palermo 2+ goals

59%

Palermo 3+ goals

31%

Carrarese 1+ goals

58%

Carrarese 2+ goals

22%

Carrarese 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

80%

Carrarese (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.75 · 5 matches

Carrarese away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.53 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 2.44 + Carrarese defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.98

Carrarese attack 0.99 + Palermo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Palermo scores more

63%

level

21%

Carrarese scores more

16%

Palermo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

V. Fiorillo

Carrarese · G

8.5

Match Events

14'

Dimitris Nikolaou

16'

S. Shpendi↳ L. Cherubini

21'

Gabriele Guarino

46'

P. Ceccaroni← D. Nikolaou

46'

J. Le Douaron← R. Insigne

53'

Francesco Di Mariano

53'

M. Finotto← E. Torregrossa

57'

Gabriele Guarino

57'

Gabriele Guarino

60'

L. Cerri← S. Shpendi

60'

M. Coppolaro← L. Cherubini

61'

F. Di Francesco← K. Lund

68'

Salim Diakité

74'

N. Pierozzi← S. Diakité

78'

T. Milanese← N. Schiavi

79'

A. Fontanarosa← N. Belloni

84'

V. Verre← F. Ranocchia

86'

Jérémy Le Douaron

86'

Julián Illanes

86'

J. Le Douaron↳ J. Segre

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalermoCarrarese

Overview

54%Possession46%

26Total Shots10

10Corners3

11Fouls14

Shots

26Total Shots10

10On Target3

7Off Target6

9Blocked1

19Inside Box7

7Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

420Total Passes370

350Accurate Passes301

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

11Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3