Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Paksi SE II vs Dunaújváros-Pálhalma — NB III - Southwest 2019

Paksi SE II
Paksi SE II
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
8/19/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 4Paksi FC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Paksi SE II61%
×Draw19%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paksi SE II
2.39
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
1.29

Paksi SE II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Paksi SE II
1.91
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
0.73

allows per match

Paksi SE II
1.84
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
2.87

finishing

Paksi SE II+0.00on par
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paksi SE II ↓

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Paksi SE II or draw
80%
Paksi SE II or Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
81%
Draw or Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
39%

Winning margin

Paksi SE II wins by 2+
40%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Paksi SE II 1+ goals
91%
Paksi SE II 2+ goals
69%
Paksi SE II 3+ goals
42%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1+ goals
72%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2+ goals
37%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Paksi SE II (draw refunded)
76%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paksi SE II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paksi SE II attack 1.91 + Dunaújváros-Pálhalma defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.39

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma attack 0.73 + Paksi SE II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Paksi SE II scores more
61%
level
19%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma scores more
20%

Paksi SE II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Paksi SE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Paksi SE II 7–0 Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

Paksi SE II beat Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 7-0 in NB III - Southwest on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Paksi FC Stadion in Paks.