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Dunaújváros-Pálhalma vs Paksi SE II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Paksi SE II
Paksi SE II
3/10/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 19Dunaújvárosi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma38%
×Draw25%
Paksi SE II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
1.42
Paksi SE II
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
0.87
Paksi SE II
1.36

allows per match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
1.40
Paksi SE II
1.96

finishing

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma+0.00on par
Paksi SE II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma ↓

Paksi SE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma or draw
64%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma or Paksi SE II
75%
Draw or Paksi SE II
62%

Winning margin

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma wins by 2+
18%
Paksi SE II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1+ goals
76%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2+ goals
41%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3+ goals
17%
Paksi SE II 1+ goals
75%
Paksi SE II 2+ goals
40%
Paksi SE II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma (draw refunded)
51%
Paksi SE II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Paksi SE II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma attack 0.87 + Paksi SE II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.42

Paksi SE II attack 1.36 + Dunaújváros-Pálhalma defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma scores more
38%
level
25%
Paksi SE II scores more
36%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dunaújváros-Pálhalma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1–1 Paksi SE II

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma and Paksi SE II drew 1-1 in NB III - Southwest on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Dunaújvárosi Stadion in Dunaújváros.