Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2–0 Paksi SE II

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paksi SE II

5/4/2022

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 34Dunaújvárosi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma43%

×Draw24%

Paksi SE II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunaújváros-PálhalmaExpected goals in this matchPaksi SE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.44

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

1.68

Paksi SE II

1.44

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma creates 17% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 56 away

1.73

creates per match

1.48

1.41

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

1.73

Paksi SE II

1.48

allows per match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

1.41

Paksi SE II

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma+0.00on par

Paksi SE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma ↓

Paksi SE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma or draw

67%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma or Paksi SE II

76%

Draw or Paksi SE II

57%

Winning margin

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma wins by 2+

22%

Paksi SE II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1+ goals

81%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2+ goals

50%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3+ goals

24%

Paksi SE II 1+ goals

76%

Paksi SE II 2+ goals

42%

Paksi SE II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma (draw refunded)

57%

Paksi SE II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Paksi SE II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma attack 1.73 + Paksi SE II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.68

Paksi SE II attack 1.48 + Dunaújváros-Pálhalma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma scores more

43%

level

24%

Paksi SE II scores more

33%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dunaújváros-Pálhalma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff