Pafos 2–4 Omonia Nicosia: Result & Stats

Pafos

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Omonia Nicosia

Lele 79'

K. Pileas 9'

W. Semedo 90', 81', 50'

R. Mmaee 12'

2/8/2026

1. Division · Round 21Stelios Kyriakides Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pafos39%

×Draw23%

Omonia Nicosia37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PafosExpected goals in this matchOmonia Nicosia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.60

Pafos

1.64

Omonia Nicosia

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

2.38

creates per match

2.39

0.81

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Pafos

2.38

Omonia Nicosia

2.39

allows per match

Pafos

0.81

Omonia Nicosia

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pafos+0.00on par

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos ↓

Omonia Nicosia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Pafos or draw

63%

Pafos or Omonia Nicosia

77%

Draw or Omonia Nicosia

61%

Winning margin

Pafos wins by 2+

20%

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Pafos 1+ goals

81%

Pafos 2+ goals

49%

Pafos 3+ goals

23%

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals

80%

Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals

47%

Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Pafos (draw refunded)

51%

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 2.39, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos attack 2.38 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.64

Omonia Nicosia attack 2.39 + Pafos defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pafos scores more

39%

level

23%

Omonia Nicosia scores more

37%

Pafos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

9'

12'

27'

37'

45+2'

46'

V. Dragomir← D. Quina

50'

W. Semedo

60'

A. Brito← I. Sunjic

60'

Jaja← M. Orsic

67'

A. Guessand← K. Pileas

78'

Anderson Silva← Dani Silva

79'

79'

81'

81'

82'

N. Erakovic← M. Tankovic

82'

A. Neofytou← R. Mmaee

90+7'

90+3'

90+7'

90+7'

90+1'

90'

Pafos4-2-3-1

Omonia4-4-2

19

⚽

▼

Mmaee

11

▼

Ewandro

7

⚽3

▼

Semedo

6

▼

Eiting

74

Andreou

22

▼

29

30

5

21

40

99

2

⚽

▼

4

14

7

88

26

▼

Sunjic

17

▼

Orsic

8

▼

Quina

80

▼

Silva

18

⚽

Lele

Manager: Albert Celades

46'▲V. Dragomir←▼D. Quina

60'▲A. Brito←▼I. Sunjic

60'▲Jaja←▼M. Orsic

67'▲A. Guessand←▼K. Pileas

78'▲Anderson Silva←▼Dani Silva

Pafos substitutes

42Michael82Petrou19Guessand5Goldar21Mimovic30Dragomir50Brito11Jaja20Odefalk77Correia33Silva9Bassouamina

Manager: Henning Berg

82'▲N. Erakovic←▼M. Tankovic

82'▲A. Neofytou←▼R. Mmaee

90+7'▲A. Dionkou←▼Ewandro

90+7'▲S. Simic←▼W. Semedo

90+1'▲M. Maric←▼C. Eiting

Omonia Nicosia substitutes

23Uzoho98Kyriakidis2DionkouChristou27Simic14Maric44Erakovic8Jovetic20Andreou10Chatzigiovanis85Neofytou

1. Division: Pafos 2–4 Omonia Nicosia

Omonia Nicosia beat Pafos 4-2 in 1. Division on February 8, 2026.

Goals: K. Pileas (9'), R. Mmaee (12'), W. Semedo (50', 81', 90'), Lele (79').

The match was played at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium in Pafos.

Pafos vs Omonia Nicosia — 1. Division 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Pafos 2–4 Omonia Nicosia