Omonia Nicosia 2–0 Pafos: Result & Stats

Omonia Nicosia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Pafos

R. Mmaee 20'

W. Semedo 11'

4/4/2026

1. Division · Championship Group - 28GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Omonia Nicosia56%

×Draw23%

Pafos21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omonia NicosiaExpected goals in this matchPafos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.04

Omonia Nicosia

1.83

Pafos

1.04

Omonia Nicosia creates 76% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

2.50

creates per match

1.65

0.44

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia

2.50

Pafos

1.65

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia

0.44

Pafos

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

Pafos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw

79%

Omonia Nicosia or Pafos

77%

Draw or Pafos

44%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+

32%

Pafos wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals

84%

Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals

54%

Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals

28%

Pafos 1+ goals

65%

Pafos 2+ goals

28%

Pafos 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)

72%

Pafos (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.44 · 18 matches

Pafos away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 2.50 + Pafos defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Pafos attack 1.65 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more

56%

level

23%

Pafos scores more

21%

Omonia Nicosia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

R. Mmaee

Omonia Nicosia · F

8.7

Match Events

11'

20'

24'

48'

56'

64'

Anderson Silva← K. Sema

70'

Jajá

73'

Lele← Dani Silva

78'

Charalambos Kyriakidis

80'

G. Masouras← Ewandro

80'

I. Kousoulos← P. Andreou

85'

K. Pileas← N. Ioannou

86'

89'

90+1'

90+1'

90+4'

N. Erakovic← M. Tankovic

90'

S. Jovetic← R. Mmaee

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OmoniaPafos

Overview

33%Possession67%

10Total Shots5

1.97Expected Goals (xG)0.17

2Corners5

20Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots5

7On Target0

3Off Target3

0Blocked2

5Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

33%Possession67%

288Total Passes539

217Accurate Passes448

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

20Fouls13

6Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides5