Omonia Nicosia 2–1 Pafos: Result & Stats

Omonia Nicosia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pafos

W. Semedo 90' (pen), 65'

V. Dragomir 15'

10/27/2025

1. Division · Round 8GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Omonia Nicosia58%

×Draw22%

Pafos20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omonia NicosiaExpected goals in this matchPafos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.00

Omonia Nicosia

1.89

Pafos

1.00

Omonia Nicosia creates 89% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

2.53

creates per match

1.58

0.42

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Omonia Nicosia

2.53

Pafos

1.58

allows per match

Omonia Nicosia

0.42

Pafos

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Nicosia ↓

Pafos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Omonia Nicosia or draw

80%

Omonia Nicosia or Pafos

78%

Draw or Pafos

42%

Winning margin

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+

34%

Pafos wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals

85%

Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals

56%

Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals

29%

Pafos 1+ goals

63%

Pafos 2+ goals

26%

Pafos 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)

75%

Pafos (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Nicosia at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.42 · 19 matches

Pafos away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Nicosia attack 2.53 + Pafos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.89

Pafos attack 1.58 + Omonia Nicosia defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Omonia Nicosia scores more

58%

level

22%

Pafos scores more

20%

Omonia Nicosia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Ivan Šunjić

15'

V. Dragomir

45+3'

Muamer Tanković

46'

David Luiz← I. Sunjic

59'

S. Jovetic← I. Kousoulos

60'

K. Pileas← K. Sema

60'

M. Bassouamina← J. Correia

61'

63'

65'

67'

75'

90+7'

A. Dionkou← M. Tankovic

90+7'

A. Khammas← W. Semedo

90+7'

N. Erakovic← R. Mmaee

90'

W. SemedoPenalty

Omonia4-2-3-1

Pafos4-2-3-1

10

▼

Dimata

30

⚽

Dragomir

8

▼

Quina

77

▼

Correia

88

Pepe

26

▼

Sunjic

12

▼

5

23

7

1

40

3

30

17

21

31

▼

Kousoulos

14

Maric

7

⚽2

▼

Semedo

11

Ewandro

22

▼

Tankovic

19

▼

Mmaee

Manager: Henning Stille Berg

59'▲S. Jovetic←▼I. Kousoulos

90+7'▲A. Dionkou←▼M. Tankovic

90+7'▲A. Khammas←▼W. Semedo

90+7'▲N. Erakovic←▼R. Mmaee

Omonia Nicosia substitutes

23Uzoho98Kyriakidis2Dionkou8Jovetic9Stepinski10Chatzigiovanis20Andreou24Khammas27Simic74Andreou44Erakovic90Konstantinidis

Manager: Juan Carlos Carcedo Mardones

46'▲David Luiz←▼I. Sunjic

60'▲K. Pileas←▼K. Sema

60'▲M. Bassouamina←▼J. Correia

67'▲M. Orsic←▼L. Dimata

75'▲O. Mimovic←▼D. Quina

Pafos substitutes

93Michail99Papadoudis2Pileas4Luiz9Bassouamina11Jaja17Orsic20Odefalk21Mimovic25Langa33Silva