Pafos 4–3 Ethnikos Achna: Result & Stats

Pafos

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Ethnikos Achna

M. Tankovic 89' (pen)

O. Valakari 46'

Jairo 35'

P. Bočkaj 11'

D. Dražić 76'

E. Cabrera 37'

E. Lomotey 29'

2/10/2024

1. Division · Round 24Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pafos68%

×Draw19%

Ethnikos Achna13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PafosExpected goals in this matchEthnikos Achna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.88

Pafos

2.25

Ethnikos Achna

0.88

Pafos creates 156% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

2.38

creates per match

0.95

0.81

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Pafos

2.38

Ethnikos Achna

0.95

allows per match

Pafos

0.81

Ethnikos Achna

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pafos+0.00on par

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos ↓

Ethnikos Achna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Pafos or draw

87%

Pafos or Ethnikos Achna

81%

Draw or Ethnikos Achna

32%

Winning margin

Pafos wins by 2+

45%

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pafos 1+ goals

89%

Pafos 2+ goals

65%

Pafos 3+ goals

39%

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

59%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

22%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Pafos (draw refunded)

84%

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos attack 2.38 + Ethnikos Achna defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.25

Ethnikos Achna attack 0.95 + Pafos defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Pafos scores more

68%

level

19%

Ethnikos Achna scores more

13%

Pafos at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

11'

29'

35'

37'

46'

58'

59'

72'

Jajá← P. Bočkaj

72'

Pêpê Rodrigues← O. Valakari

72'

N. Mezquida← M. Pechlivanis

72'

M. Stylianou← G. Angelopoulos

72'

D. Christofi← M. Ilia

76'

D. Dražić

83'

K. Ilia← D. Dražić

89'

N. Ioannidis← T. Nikolaou

89'

M. TankovicPenalty

90+3'

Anthony Contreras

90+2'

A. Contreras← Jairo

Shots

Statistics

PafosEthnikos

Overview

16Total Shots7

8Corners3

9Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots7

7On Target3

2Off Target3

7Blocked1

Discipline

9Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3