Ethnikos Achna 0–2 Pafos: Result & Stats

Ethnikos Achna

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Pafos

David Goldar 38'

Jairo 8'

12/8/2024

1. Division · Round 13Stadio Dasaki Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ethnikos Achna33%

×Draw27%

Pafos40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ethnikos AchnaExpected goals in this matchPafos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.35

Ethnikos Achna

1.19

Pafos

1.35

Pafos creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

1.12

creates per match

1.58

1.12

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Ethnikos Achna

1.12

Pafos

1.58

allows per match

Ethnikos Achna

1.12

Pafos

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethnikos Achna ↓

Pafos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ethnikos Achna or draw

60%

Ethnikos Achna or Pafos

73%

Draw or Pafos

67%

Winning margin

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

14%

Pafos wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

70%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

33%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

12%

Pafos 1+ goals

74%

Pafos 2+ goals

39%

Pafos 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

45%

Pafos (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethnikos Achna at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Pafos away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.12 + Pafos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Pafos attack 1.58 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ethnikos Achna scores more

33%

level

27%

Pafos scores more

40%

Pafos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

33'

38'

46'

62'

66'

73'

Pablo Gonzalez Juarez

76'

M. Name← I. Šunjić

76'

Anderson Silva← Jairo

78'

N. Milinceanu← Breno

78'

G. Angelopoulos← P. Ioannou

83'

M. Tanlongo← V. Dragomir

85'

N. Perdios← N. Andereggen

85'

M. Ilia← M. Tanković

90+2'

R. Hernandez← J. Bonetto

Ethnikos4-1-4-1

Pafos4-2-3-1

10

⚽

▼

Jairo

11

▼

Jajá

88

Rodrigues

22

▼

Tanković

26

▼

Šunjić

30

▼

Dragomir

2

Pileas

32

Boukamir

5

⚽

7

1

40

37

16

12

22

▼

25

10

17

11

▼

Bonetto

98

▼

Breno

33

▼

Anderegge

Manager: David Badia

78'▲N. Milinceanu←▼Breno

78'▲G. Angelopoulos←▼P. Ioannou

85'▲N. Perdios←▼N. Andereggen

90+2'▲R. Hernandez←▼J. Bonetto

Ethnikos Achna substitutes

20Milinceanu80Angelopoulos47Perdios19Hernandez1Bogatinov18Dubov23Venizelou45Papastylianou77Christofi93Baret94Tetour

Manager: Carcedo

46'▲Domingos Quina←▼Jajá

76'▲M. Name←▼I. Šunjić

76'▲Anderson Silva←▼Jairo

83'▲M. Tanlongo←▼V. Dragomir

85'▲M. Ilia←▼M. Tanković

Pafos substitutes

8Quina25Name33Silva16Tanlongo70Ilia9Natel19Silva45Pontelo77Correia93Michael99Papadoudis