Ethnikos Achna 2–1 Pafos: Result & Stats

Ethnikos Achna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Pafos

C. Giousis 88', 6'

D. Luckassen 83'

1/31/2026

1. Division · Round 20Ethnikos Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ethnikos Achna35%

×Draw26%

Pafos38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ethnikos AchnaExpected goals in this matchPafos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.33

Ethnikos Achna

1.27

Pafos

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

1.19

creates per match

1.60

1.06

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Ethnikos Achna

1.19

Pafos

1.60

allows per match

Ethnikos Achna

1.06

Pafos

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethnikos Achna ↓

Pafos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ethnikos Achna or draw

62%

Ethnikos Achna or Pafos

74%

Draw or Pafos

65%

Winning margin

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

15%

Pafos wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

72%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

36%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

14%

Pafos 1+ goals

74%

Pafos 2+ goals

38%

Pafos 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

48%

Pafos (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethnikos Achna at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Pafos away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.19 + Pafos defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pafos attack 1.60 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ethnikos Achna scores more

35%

level

26%

Pafos scores more

38%

Pafos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

39'

46'

47'

56'

65'

L. Dimata← Jaja

66'

Derrick Luckassen

70'

J. Siverio← N. Giallouros

75'

77'

83'

84'

87'

Luís Felipe Hungria Martins

88'

C. Giousis

90+10'

Giorgos Papageorgiou

90+1'

Jay Gorter

90+9'

G. Andreou← N. Andereggen

90+2'

M. Pechlivanis← C. Giousis

Ethnikos3-5-2

Pafos4-2-3-1

33

Silva

12

▼

Sema

8

Quina

11

▼

Jaja

30

Dragomir

88

Pepe

2

▼

Pileas

4

Luiz

23

⚽

7

1

40

37

5

77

7

17

44

▼

Giallouro

27

Confais

30

Papageorg

70

⚽2

▼

Giousis

33

▼

Anderegge

Manager: Rui Ferreira

70'▲J. Siverio←▼N. Giallouros

90+9'▲G. Andreou←▼N. Andereggen

90+2'▲M. Pechlivanis←▼C. Giousis

Ethnikos Achna substitutes

38Toumpas72Papakonstantinou2Soulis4Andreou10Pechlivanis14Dimitriou64Camacho99Siverio

Manager: Albert Celades

46'▲M. Orsic←▼K. Pileas

65'▲L. Dimata←▼Jaja

75'▲W. Odefalk←▼K. Sema

Pafos substitutes

93Michail99Papadoudis5Goldar10Dimata17Orsic19Guessand20Odefalk21Mimovic42Michael50Brito87Caldieraro