Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao — Primeira Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 67+ matches
Pacos Ferreira35%
Famalicao39%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 67 home / 118 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Pacos Ferreira ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Pacos Ferreira at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches
Famalicao away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 118 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Pacos Ferreira attack 1.03 + Famalicao defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23
Famalicao attack 1.20 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Famalicao at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Benfica
SC BragaFamalicao
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Arouca
Estoril
Alverca
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
Nacional
Casa Pia
Estrela
Tondela
AVS
TorreenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Pacos Ferreira host Famalicao on Saturday, 8 April 2023 at 17:00. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao
Famalicao beat Pacos Ferreira 3-1 in Primeira Liga on April 8, 2023.
Goals: Hernâni Infande (34'), J. Cádiz (41'), Iván Jaime (70', 87').
Famalicao controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 13.
The match was played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Paços de Ferreira.